Chamberlain, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

631
FXUS63 KFSD 160011
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
711 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blizzard conditions continue across the area this afternoon,
  though on a declining trend from west to east. Locations west
  of I- 29 will see Blizzard conditions come to an end by 7 pm
  this evening before transitioning to a Winter Weather
  Advisory. This Advisory is in effect from 7 pm to 1 am.

- Strong winds persist through this afternoon with gusts up to
  35-55 mph with with isolated higher gusts up to 60 mph. The
  strongest winds remain expected south of I-90 where a High
  Wind Warning remains in effect.

- With breezy winds persisting through Sunday night, wind chills
  down to -20F to -30F are expected. Thus, a Cold Weather
  Advisory has been issued for the vast majority of locations
  along and east of I- 29. The Cold Weather Advisory is in
  effect from 1 am to 11 am Monday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected for the second
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The Blizzard persists this afternoon as winds have strengthened up
to 35-55 mph, with isolated higher gusts up to 60 mph. Snow
continues to end from northwest to southeast through the rest of the
daylight hours. With the winds in place, blowing and drifting snow
is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon and
evening hours even though winds will be slowly waning through the
evening and overnight timeframe. There remains the possibility of a
few weak snow showers behind the main area of snow as lapse rates
steepen a bit more. Though the low levels will be drying out so it
will be a short window for this snow shower possibility. Locally
lowered visibility would be expected in these showers. With
locations generally west of I-29 seeing conditions beginning to
improve, have decided to expire the Blizzard Warning early at 7 pm
this evening for most locations west of I-29. However, did issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for this are due to continued blowing and
drifting snow concerns. This Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
from 7 pm to 1 am. Temperatures will be falling through the evening
and overnight hours with low temperatures bottoming out in the
positive and negative single digits. With continued breezy winds in
place, wind chills will fall to the -20F to -30F range, with the
coldest wind chills coming across southwest Minnesota and adjacent
portions of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Thus a Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for this area and is in effect from
1 am to 11 am Monday morning.

Monday is expected to be a cold day across the area as surface
ridging begins to slide through the Northern Plains. With a steeper
pressure gradient in place, generally near and east of I-29, winds
will be strongest in this area though on a declining trend. With a
cold high in place, high temperatures are only expected to reach
from the upper single digits to the low 20s, coldest across
southwest Minnesota where the deepest snow pack is. Despite the
weakening winds, wind chills will remain in the positive and
negative teens across the area.

Upper level ridging begins to build across the southwestern CONUS on
Tuesday. A weak shortwave trough within downwind side of the upper
level ridge will result in warm air advection (WAA) strengthening
aloft. This WAA also looks to bring a chance of precipitation with
it. With the WAA increasing temperatures at the surface and aloft,
precipitation looks to be mixed. It looks to begin as mainly snow and
translate from northwest to southeast. There could be an small mixed
precipitation zone where sleet and some freezing rain may be
possible. After this small transition zone, precipitation will turn
to all rain. Some uncertainty in the locations and precipitation
types but the ensembles show a broad 20-60% chance for locations
along and northeast of a Huron, South Dakota to Sioux Falls, South
Dakota, to Storm Lake, Iowa line to exceed one inch of snow.

Upper level ridging will continue to build over the western CONUS
for the middle and end of the week. This will result in a northwest
flow regime over the Northern Plains. Thus, dry and warm conditions
are expected. High temperatures look to near seasonable to warm well
above average with highs 40s, 50s, 60s, and even into the 70s. The
warmest temperatures look to come on Friday and Saturday at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Blowing snow will continue to lead to MVFR to locally IFR
visibilities at KFSD and KSUX this evening. Blowing snow will
continue into tonight for all TAF sites, but with winds gradually
diminishing, the chance for MVFR visibilities will decrease
through the night at the TAF sites. VFR conditions expected
otherwise heading into the day Monday.

As mentioned, northwesterly winds will slowly but surely diminish
through tonight and into the day Monday. Could still see a few wind
gusts as high as 45-50 kts in northwest Iowa until around midnight,
with gusts between 20 and 35 kts by daybreak Monday. Winds will
remain mainly out of the northwest through the end of the period
and continue to decrease, with light and variable winds likely
by 16.24Z west of the James River.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ062-066>071.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ067-070-071.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040-
     056-071.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ038-039-
     050-052>055-057>061-063>065.
MN...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ098.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097.
IA...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001-012-020-031.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ002-003-013-014-
     021-022-032.
NE...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-
     014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Samet